Core Inflation

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CORE INFLATION….Why does the Fed rely on a “core” inflation rate — one that excludes food and energy costs — when it sets monetary policy? Are they trying to pretend that food and energy, items that are more important to the middle class than to the rich, don’t matter? Mark Thoma explains:

If the question is “what is today’s inflation rate,” the total inflation rate is the best measure. It’s intended to measure the cost of living and there’s no reason at all to strip anything out. It’s only when we ask different questions that different measures are used.

Core inflation, it turns out, (a) does a better job of forecasting future inflation, (b) does a better job of estimating whether inflation is currently rising or falling, and (c) is the inflation target that best stabilizes the economy.

The core inflation rate you see in the news, the one that strips out food and energy, should be though of as a short-hand, quick measure of all three of these concepts. But in each case the Fed uses measures (formally or informally) designed to best satisfy these three functions. For example, when it forecasts future inflation, it uses a different concept of core inflation than it uses in setting policy.

In other words: no, the Fed isn’t trying to pretend that food and energy inflation aren’t important. They focus on core inflation because it’s a better input to the technical models they use to guide monetary policy. Read the whole thing for the full explanation.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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