Here’s the latest from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. It shows the number of people who have experienced various kinds of economic distress over the past year. In their latest poll, 44% have seen reduced wages, 41% have lost their job, 28% have lost their health insurance, and 22% have fallen behind on their mortgages. Every single one of these numbers is up since the beginning of the year.
And the political result? About what you’d expect: a year ago people trusted Democrats over Republicans by 14 points to manage the economy and by 9 points to manage the deficit. Today they trust Republicans by 13 points and 18 points respectively. I’m still willing to go out on a limb and say that Democrats will retain control of the House in November, but polls like this don’t do anything for my confidence.