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Should Democrats have negotiated an increase in the debt ceiling as part of Obama’s tax cut package? You’d think so, but apparently Harry Reid is actually eager to have a debt ceiling fight:

The theory goes something like this: Republicans will demand sharp spending cuts in return for lifting the debt ceiling. Let them. “Boehner et al have had the luxury of proposing all sorts of ideas that bear no relation to reality,” says Jim Manley, Reid’s spokesman. “Next year, they’ll have to lay it all out. No more magic asterisks, no more ‘we’ll get back to you.’ “

In this telling, the debt ceiling vote represents a trap for Republicans more than an opportunity for Democrats. If Republicans want to cut spending, now’s their chance. But that means passing a package of spending cuts, which they may find less enjoyable than simply saying that Democrats should stop spending so much. And if the American people aren’t supportive of the Republicans’ spending cuts, the GOP will be caught defending an unpopular package as part of a political gambit that could lead to the bankruptcy of the United State of America.

I don’t know how the debt ceiling fight is going to go, but the Reid/Manley theory seems all wet to me. Here’s the thing: Republicans almost certainly won’t demand sharp spending cuts. There might be some posturing along these lines, but nothing serious. Both mainstream conservatives and tea partiers alike have made it crystal clear that when push comes to shove, they don’t support actual substantial spending cuts.

But they do support modest spending cuts in areas that Democrats hold dear, and that’s more likely where the fight will be. It will be over a bit of healthcare funding, a bit of education funding, and a bit of food stamp funding. Republicans can pretty easily come up with $50-100 billion in spending that their base doesn’t care about and that doesn’t seem too draconian to the public at large, and that’s what they’ll fight over.

So we’ll see. My guess is that there will be lots of heat, very little light, and in the end both sides will agree to some modest cuts here and there and no more. The activist wing of the party might be itching to shut down the government, but I doubt that Boehner and McConnell are very eager to do that. They know perfectly well that, just as Bill Clinton was simply a more likeable figure than Newt Gingrich, Barack Obama is a more likeable figure than they are. He’ll win a fight over a government shutdown and they know it.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

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