Stimulus Spending and Time Warps

Let our journalists help you make sense of the noise: Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily newsletter and get a recap of news that matters.

Over at Cato, Daniel Mitchell posts the chart below and says it shows just how worthless Obama’s economic stimulus package was. “As you can see, the unemployment rate is about 2.5 percentage points higher than the White House claimed it would be at this point.”

This has become such a popular meme on the right that I suppose it’s pointless to argue with it. But seriously. This chart shows the exact opposite of what Mitchell claims. I mean, just take a look at the data itself. By the time the stimulus bill had passed, unemployment was already a point higher than projections. By the end of Q3, about the earliest point that anyone thinks the stimulus might have really started working its way through the system, unemployment was already nearly two points higher. All of this happened before the stimulus could plausibly have had any significant impact on employment, either positive or negative.
(CBO’s tiny estimates for Q2 and Q3 of 2009 are here.)
The post-collapse recession, unfortunately, was simply far bigger than the Obama administration predicted.

After that, unemployment quickly peaked and started to come down. Did it come down faster because of the stimulus? Most models of the economy say yes, though feel free to argue if you prefer a different model. But what you can’t argue is that the stimulus was ineffective because it didn’t have an effect before it even started. This is economics, after all, not science fiction. What this chart really suggests isn’t that the stimulus didn’t work, but rather that (a) the 2008-09 recession turned out to be way worse than anyone thought in late 2008, and (b) the stimulus package was too small. We’re still paying the price for that mistake.

Via Peter Suderman.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate