So what happens if we tighten our belts and cut back on spending, as Republicans unanimously want us to do? A new IMF study estimates the effect of a cutback equal to 1% of GDP, which amounts to about $150 billion in the U.S. According to both the GOP leadership and its crew of presidential candidates, this would be peanuts, a mere down payment on serious budget cutting.
And maybe so. Unfortunately, as the chart below shows, a cutback of that size would lead to lower incomes and dramatically higher unemployment. But wait! There’s more! The IMF study says the effect is twice as big as the one in Chart 2 when central banks can’t cut interest rates. And guess what? The Fed already has interest rates at zero. They can’t cut them any further.
In other words, the GOP’s version of belt-tightening would probably jack up unemployment rates by nearly a full point. Welcome to Rick Perry’s America. (Via Brad Plumer.)