How Much Did Wednesday’s Debate Help Romney?

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Did Obama’s poor debate performance cause his poll standing to crater? There’s good reason to doubt this. Obama’s drop has been large enough that, almost literally, the debate could have been the cause only if every single undecided voter watching on Wednesday had decided overnight to vote for Romney. Historically, there’s simply no precedent for this. Presidential debates typically have only a modest impact on campaigns, and it’s not as if Obama staggered onto the stage shitfaced or something.

But if you’re not convinced, take a look instead at the Pollster poll average below. I’ve labeled it for easy reference. Between September 27 and October 3 — before the debate had an impact — Romney gained 3.5 points on Obama. Between October 3 and October 8 he gained another 0.4 points. In other words, nearly all of his gain came before the debate, not after.

Other poll averages I’ve looked at show different trajectories. RCP shows Romney gaining ground starting at the end of September, but (unlike Pollster) shows that he gained more ground after the debate than before. Nate Silver shows all of Romney’s gain coming after the debate, but his model also shows a fairly smallish gain. There’s no unqualified answer here. Still, the balance of the evidence suggests that Romney was bouncing back from his terrible September well before last Wednesday, and has gained modestly but not titanically since then. There’s obviously been some mean reversion to the fundamentals here, and it’s not yet clear just how big an impact the debate has really had. We’ll know more over the next few days.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

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