February 6, 2013

New Study Finds NYC’s Crime Drop a Mystery. Is It?

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Violent crime in New York City has dropped 75 percent since the early 90s. The most common explanations include the introduction of “broken windows” policing in 1994, which focuses on stopping small crimes before they spiral into big ones; hot spot policing implemented via the CompStat system; more cops on the street; and higher incarceration rates. David Greenberg of NYU took a look at all of these explanations and found them wanting:

The study, which appears in the journal Justice Quarterly, did not find a link between arrests on misdemeanor charges and drops in felonies, such as homicides, robberies, and assaults….The analysis also showed no relationship between the number of police officers per capita at the precinct level and the reduction of violent crime, nor did it find a link between admissions to prison and violent crime rates….The analysis showed that violent crime rates (homicide, aggravated assault, forcible rape, and robbery) and property crime rates did not significantly decrease after the implementation of CompStat—in fact, both continued on a consistent downward slope beginning in the early 1990s.

These are all topics that have been the subject of considerable debate for years, and since I don’t have access to the full paper, I can’t assess how good Greenberg’s methodology is. Nonetheless, I suspect that he’s more right than wrong. Even if all these things had some effect, the evidence mostly suggests the effect is nowhere big enough to account for the huge drop in crime that New York has seen. Still:

“The decline in crime was a real one during this period, but the question is ‘Why?’ ” said Greenberg, adding that many other major cities, including San Diego and Los Angeles, experienced similar reductions during this period.

Yep. And Canadian cities too. Plus cities in Britain, Germany, Australia, and Finland. Broken windows policing certainly can’t explain that. But I assume that all loyal readers of this blog know what can. Right?

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WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

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Readers also told us to just give it to you straight when we need to ask for your support, and seeing how matter-of-factly explaining our inner workings, our challenges and finances, can bring more of you in has been a real silver lining. So our online membership lead, Brian, lays it all out for you in his personal, insider account (that literally puts his skin in the game!) of how urgent things are right now.

The upshot: Being able to rally $253,000 in donations over these next few weeks is vitally important simply because it is the number that keeps us right on track, helping make sure we don't end up with a bigger gap than can be filled again, helping us avoid any significant (and knowable) cash-flow crunches for now. We used to be more nonchalant about coming up short this time of year, thinking we can make it by the time June rolls around. Not anymore.

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