A Long Shutdown Would Seriously Hurt Economic Growth

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Via Dylan Matthews, here’s a chart that summarizes some of the leading estimates of the cost of a government shutdown. A brief shutdown (in blue) wouldn’t do too much damage. But a longer shutdown (in green) would. The average of the five estimates is that it would reduce fourth quarter GDP by about 1 percentage point. As CRFB points out, estimates of fourth quarter growth are only a little above 2 percent right now, so this would be a big hit.

Think about this. Without any headwinds, fourth quarter GDP growth would probably clock in around 3 percent or so. The sequester has already cut that down to about 2.3 percent. A long shutdown could cut it further to 1.3 percent. If this happens, it means that Republican economic folly will have reduced economic growth in the fourth quarter by half or more. Thanks, Republicans!

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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