Obamacare for Blue States But Not For Red: Dream or Nightmare?

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Speaking of King v. Burwell, here’s the thing about it that I’ve always really wondered about. Suppose the plaintiffs win and Republicans can’t agree on a plan to do anything about it. Subsidies get eliminated in 34 states, almost all of them red. This basically guts Obamacare for anyone in, say, the bottom third of the income spectrum, which is virtually all Obamacare users. A few middle-class users with pre-existing conditions will still take advantage of it, which will cause either a big death spiral or a little one among insurance companies, but rates will surely go up. Bottom line: the extent of the chaos is a little hard to predict, but for all practical purposes Obamacare goes away in red states.

But in blue states? It’s business as usual. California will continue to hoover up federal subsidies and its exchange will be open for business as usual. Ditto for the liberal hellholes of New York and Taxachusetts and so forth.

Bottom line: We will have a thriving social welfare program for health care in the blue states—funded by everyone’s tax dollars—and nothing in the red states. Is that tolerable? Is it sustainable? Red states won’t be able to do much about it, aside from caving in and tacitly supporting Obamacare by starting up their own exchanges. So what happens? Does this eventually cause congressional Republicans to cave in completely and pass the infamous four-word fix? Do they hold out because they hate Obamacare just that much? Or what?

We’ve never had a major social spending program limited solely to the blue states who support it. It’s terra incognita. So what would happen?

NOTE: I continue to think the Supreme Court will do the right thing and rule against the plaintiffs in King. That would make this all moot. But you never know.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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