August 25, 2015

Hispanics Really, Really Hate Donald Trump

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Gallup posted a pretty dramatic chart today. It shows net favorability among Hispanics for the Republican presidential candidates, and for 16 of them it ranges from +11 (Jeb Bush) to -7 (Ted Cruz). That’s a fairly narrow band. But for Donald Trump, net favorability clocks in at -51.

-51! For Hillary Clinton, net favorability is +40.

How much does this matter? Potentially a lot. Between 2012 and 2016, the Hispanic share of the US population will increase by about 2 percentage points. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but recent elections have all been close calls. If the Hispanic share of the population grows and they vote in ever greater numbers for Democrats, that could easily make a difference of 1 or 2 percentage points. And that could end up being the difference between victory and defeat.

And it could be even worse than that. In some swing states like Florida and Nevada, the Hispanic share of the population will increase by 3 percentage points between 2012 and 2016. Those states will soon be out of reach for Republican candidates if Hispanics flock to the Democratic Party in ever greater numbers.

“Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.” There’s a lot of blather right now about how Trump is appealing to populism, appealing to the disenfranchised, appealing to all the anger out there. But that’s strategy. If you’re smart, you’ll let the amateurs keep blathering while the professionals look at the cold realities of demographic trends and voter turnout. On that score, Trump is doing nothing but damage to the GOP.

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WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

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