March 20, 2017

A Correction: Here’s How Trump Is Doing Among Republican Voters

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Last night I posted a Gallup chart showing the job approval ratings of the four most recent Republican presidents among Republicans. Unfortunately, I bolluxed it up, so I deleted the whole thing. But now it’s morning and I have time to create the correct chart and make a more constrained point with it, so here it is:

The recent cratering of President Trump’s job approval rating was getting some attention last night, but I think this is a more important chart. What really matters is whether Trump stays popular among Republican voters—and whether this rubs off on the Republican Congress. So far he has. Trump’s popularity among Republican voters during his first two months is as good as any of his predecessors.

This is not everything, of course. Although the House (deliberately) and the Senate (by historical accident) are currently gerrymandered to favor Republicans, centrists still matter. And according to Gallup, Trump is bleeding support among those without a party: his job approval rating has already dropped six percentage points among independents. If that continues it could mean bad news for the 2018 midterms, followed by a one-term presidency. These indies are who Democrats should care about right now. Unless things change, the Republican base remains not just out of reach, but positively thrilled with President Trump.

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WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

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Readers also told us to just give it to you straight when we need to ask for your support, and seeing how matter-of-factly explaining our inner workings, our challenges and finances, can bring more of you in has been a real silver lining. So our online membership lead, Brian, lays it all out for you in his personal, insider account (that literally puts his skin in the game!) of how urgent things are right now.

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