JCT: Even With Dynamic Scoring, Republican Tax Bill Will Still Cost $1 Trillion

Republicans in Congress were desperately hoping that the Joint Committee on Taxation wouldn’t have time to perform a dynamic estimate of their tax bill before they passed it. But the JCT wonks put in some overtime and got the job done. Yay wonks! Here’s the result:

  • Over ten years, the tax bill will increase the deficit by $1 trillion rather than $1.4 trillion.

This means that the deficit hawks no longer have any excuse for pretending that the tax cut will supercharge the economy so much it will pay for itself. JCT applied the dynamic fairy dust, but it was nowhere near enough.

As for growth, Republicans were going around saying that all they needed was 0.4 percent higher GDP each year and everything would be great. JCT projects instead that the bill will increase GDP by a little less than 0.1 percent each year.¹

I doubt that this means the bill is in danger of not passing. It just means the deficit hawks have to come up with a different excuse for voting for it.

¹I think. The actual JCT wording is that the tax bill would increase output “by 0.8 percent on average throughout the ten-year budget window.” This is oddly ambiguous. It obviously doesn’t mean 0.8 percent per year, but neither does it mean that GDP is 0.8 percent bigger by the end of ten years (“the increase in output is expected to be smaller towards the end of the budget window”). Truthfully, I’m not really sure precisely what it means, but I think it probably translates into roughly the equivalent of an additional growth of about 0.1 percent per year.

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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