Chart of the Day? Jobless Claims Hit 50 Year Low

Here’s the basic chart for new unemployment claims:

For some reason, the Department of Labor always shows these numbers in their raw form and as a 4-week moving average. I’m not sure why. The moving average smooths things out slightly, but hardly enough to matter, and they don’t do this for any other time series. Why only for this one?

In any case, I want to put up a whole different chart: initial jobless claims as a percent of the labor force. As the population of the country increases, jobless claims are also going to increase, so it hardly makes sense to compare today’s number with those from 1969. Instead, we should look at jobless claims as a percentage of the size of the current labor force:

As you can see, we didn’t set any records this month, as a few people are claiming. We set a record back in July 2014 and jobless claims have been dropping steadily ever since. For better or worse, there’s nothing special going on right now. The economy has been expanding for 108 consecutive months, and if it keeps going for another year it will set the all-time record for longest economic expansion in American history.¹

¹It’s already beaten the 106-month expansion of the go-go 60s, and all that’s left now is to beat the world champion 120-month expansion of the dotcom 90s.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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