538 has some interesting charts showing who did well and who did poorly at last night’s debate. Here’s one that shows before and after from a single panel of likely voters:
I suppose I’m glad to see that my instincts were mostly confirmed. Of the top-tier candidates, Warren did well and Harris did poorly. Another chart shows that Julián Castro’s dig at Biden’s memory was disastrous for him. The only (minor) surprise to me is that Andrew Yang scored slightly positively.
For the time being, this is basically a two-person race. Sanders has never been a serious contender, no matter what the polling says, and Harris is slowly slipping into oblivion. It’s Biden vs. Warren.