Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 25 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through Wednesday. I’ve corrected a small error in the Swedish chart, but there are otherwise no big changes to note. As usual, Switzerland and the United States are doing better than the Italian trendline while Spain is doing a lot worse. Everyone else is pretty close to the Italian path.

The Italian death rate continues to decelerate. Here’s another look:

This is a simple four-day rolling average of the day-to-day growth, and it suggests that growth will go to zero in the four-day period from April 3-6. If this holds up, growth will then turn negative until the death toll reaches zero in early May. This shows the same thing as my previous charts, in which I roughly fit a normal curve to the Italian death toll.

Here’s how to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 20; total deaths are at 222x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 19.9 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is slightly below where Italy was on their Day 20.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

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Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

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Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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