Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 7 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 7. Italy continues to decline. Germany is still climbing, but showing signs of getting near its peak. The data from France continues to be noisy as hell. Several correspondents tell me this is because France only counted deaths in hospitals for the first couple of weeks, but then started counting deaths in nursing homes too. That’s when the death rate started to zoom upward and got messy.

The death toll for the United States continues to show glimmers of flattening:

The growth rate of daily deaths continues to slow down and now suggests a peak sometime in the middle of next week. Total deaths at peak now looks to be around 50-60,000, which suggests a total death toll of around 100-120,000 through June. As usual, this all depends on how well we keep up our countermeasures. Overall, though, things are looking better now than they did a couple of weeks ago.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 33; total deaths are at 1,724x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 154.4 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 33.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We've never been very good at being conservative.

And usually, that serves us well in doing the ambitious, hard-hitting journalism that you turn to Mother Jones for. But it also means we can't afford to come up short when it comes to scratching together the funds it takes to keep our team firing on all cylinders, and the truth is, we finished our budgeting cycle on June 30 about $100,000 short of our online goal.

This is no time to come up short. It's time to fight like hell, as our namesake would tell us to do, for a democracy where minority rule cannot impose an extreme agenda, where facts matter, and where accountability has a chance at the polls and in the press. If you value our reporting and you can right now, please help us dig out of the $100,000 hole we're starting our new budgeting cycle in with an always-needed and always-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate