When Will COVID-19 Deaths Start to Decline?

A couple of people have asked for an update of a chart I put up a few weeks ago comparing the COVID-19 case rate with the death rate. Here it is:

During the first round of COVID-19, the death rate started to decline about two weeks after the case rate began falling. If the same thing happens this time around, deaths have already peaked and will start to decline in about a week or so.

I’m not saying this is what will happen. There have been too many surprises already in the COVID-19 numbers, and the actual death rate will depend a lot on how seriously everyone is taking the recommended countermeasures (masks, social distancing, etc.). I can’t predict that—and neither can anyone else—which means I can’t predict the death rate trend either.

Still, if the second round of COVID-19 is like the first round, late July would have been a decent baseline guess for peak deaths—which turned out to be the case—and mid-August is our best guess for the start of the decline.

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WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

The short of it: Last year, we had to cut $1 million from our budget so we could have any chance of breaking even by the time our fiscal year ended in June. And despite a huge rally from so many of you leading up to the deadline, we still came up a bit short on the whole. We can’t let that happen again. We have no wiggle room to begin with, and now we have a hole to dig out of.

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