Second Choice Info: Polling News That Is Actually Interesting

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Zogby just released the first Iowa poll that redistributes the supporters of the second-tier candidates according to who their choice within the first tier is.

This is important because of the way the caucuses work. In the Iowa Democratic Party’s system, a candidate must establish “viability” at the beginning of the caucus. The caucus chair in each caucus room counts the number of attendees, and then has people split into groups depending on who they support. Any group that doesn’t represent a pre-set percentage of the total attendees (usually 15 percent) is declared unviable, meaning their candidate is out of the running to win delegates from that caucus. The caucus-goers in the unviable group can either stand strong in a symbolic but ultimately meaningless gesture, or they can disperse and join other groups around the room representing the viable candidates. (And yes, in caucuses people actually psyhically move around the room. In 2004, many Kucinich supporters left Kucinich after he was declared unviable to move to Edwards. Gephardt supporters largely refused to budge, and where not counted.)

Clinton, Obama, and Edwards will be viable, without question. Depending on how good his organization is at getting out supporters on caucus night, Richardson may also be viable in most places. But there is a good chance that Dodd, Biden, and Kucinich will not be viable.

So the second choice of Dodd, Biden, and Kucinich supporters is important to know. Will they go to Obama? Clinton? Edwards? Zogby redid their Iowa poll with second-tier candidates removed and found that Edwards gained six percent, Obama gained four percent, and Clinton gained two percent. Here are the numbers:

Candidate First Choice Only Including Second Choices of Those Who First Backed Unviables
Clinton 28% 30%
Obama 25% 29%
Edwards 21% 27%

So a tight race becomes even tighter. It will be interesting to see what other polling outfits show when they also poll with second-choicers in mind, because other polling outfits show a much closer race than Zogby’s 28/25/21 split. One recent poll actually has Obama leading for the first time.

SIX TRUTHS

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

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Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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