Coming Soon: The Bush-Kasich Death Match

The two temperate Republican candidates probably can’t avoid a brawl.

Christopher Occhicone/ZUMA; Ryan McBride/ZUMA

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


So far, the Republican presidential contest has been like a Quentin Tarantino film in which the main characters end up in a circular firing squad or a multisided Mexican standoff and don’t know whom to target—or from which direction an attack might come. Donald Trump has rotated the target of his volleys, and the other Republican contenders have often seemed puzzled whether to go after the front-runner or focus on a candidate who is a more direct competitor for a certain slice of the GOP electorate.

Trump, at different times, has needled Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz. Bush, at one point, attempted—feebly— to take a poke at Trump. Bush and Marco Rubio have tangled with each other. Cruz and Rubio have done the same. On Saturday night, in the most consequential clash of the campaign, Chris Christie unloaded on Rubio during the New Hampshire debate, forcing the one-term senator to commit a blunder that may have derailed his campaign permanently. Trump, Cruz, Kasich, and Bush—especially Bush—no doubt appreciated this greatly, though the harsh assault did not help Christie, who on Wednesday appeared set to suspend his campaign. As the non-Trump field has shifted, the one-on-ones have changed. And with the New Hampshire results, it seems inevitable that a coming matchup will pit Kasich against Bush.

This could be an odd battle. Kasich placed second in New Hampshire, Bush came in fourth, and both are governors (Bush is an ex-) who emphasize their policy chops and claim they want to stay positive. (Bush has referred to immigration to the United States as an “act of love,” and Kasich, as part of his campaign pitch, has called on people to slow down and listen more to each other.) Both are from and pals of the GOP establishment. Both tout their executive experience and claim to have reasonable demeanors. Both seek to win the fancy of moderate, suburban Republicans. Each probably cannot survive long in the race without knocking the other out—sooner rather than later.

On Wednesday morning—that didn’t take long!—a Bush campaign operative told me that the Jeb crew was prepping to rip Kasich apart. There would be two lines of public attack at first: Kasich, as Ohio governor, has expanded Medicaid under Obamacare; and Kasich, when he was a member of Congress, sought to close military bases and decrease some military spending. “None of this will play well in conservative South Carolina,” the Bush operative said, with a smile, referring to the next primary state. (That state counts a high number of retired military veterans among its residents.) And the Bush camp’s message to funders and insiders is going to be this: Kasich does not have the money or the organization to compete in the weeks ahead when the race expands to more states holding elections at the same time, so don’t waste your bucks and time on him.

This operative was repeating the talking points that the campaign had quickly devised in the aftermath of New Hampshire to disseminate to top aides and surrogates. Politico obtained a copy, and here’s an excerpt: “Governor Kasich has little to no chance in South Carolina, and does not have a national organization that can compete. Kasich has consistently supported gutting the military and has no viable path in the Palmetto State.”

The Bush goal: to smash Kasich in South Carolina and preserve Jeb’s long and painful-to-watch slog as an establishment-friendly alternative to Trump and Cruz.

When I asked a Kasich strategist—a well-known establishment GOPer—about the Bush plan to demolish Kasich, he scoffed: “They came in fourth, and they’re calling on Kasich to get out of the race so Jeb can have a clean shot. Now that’s ridiculous.” He downplayed the significance of South Carolina and noted that the Kasich folks assume that four or five candidates will still be standing after the Palmetto State. He meant Trump, who has drawn great crowds there; Cruz, who is well positioned to round up evangelical voters in South Carolina; Kasich; Bush; and perhaps Rubio, if he can salvage his campaign. Kasich and his advisers hope the South Carolina primary will be dominated by a Trump-Cruz confrontation—the more sparks the better—and not a Bush-Kasich showdown. Their immediate aim is to slide past South Carolina and head to the early March contests, when Kasich might have better shots in several states, including Massachusetts, Vermont, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, and Michigan. His home state primary in Ohio is March 15.

But does Kasich have the cash and organization to compete on all these fronts? “People are taking our calls now,” the Kasich strategist says. He says there is no way Kasich will lead in the delegate count come mid-March. But the campaign wants to demonstrate that Kasich will be a long-run candidate. Can this happen without getting into vicious combat with Bush? “Well,” the Kasich strategist remarks, “he will try to stay positive.” That doesn’t appear to be the Bush plan. And it’s awfully hard to avoid a fight when the other fellow is dead set on it.

South Carolina has a history of below-the-belt politics, and the Bush family has been part of that. (See the 2000 GOP primary campaign, when the George W. Bush camp slimed John McCain to defeat.) The Bush clan knows how to get dirty in South Carolina. Regardless of what happens with Trump and Cruz, a Bush-Kasich brawl could well be the main event.

WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

The short of it: Last year, we had to cut $1 million from our budget so we could have any chance of breaking even by the time our fiscal year ended in June. And despite a huge rally from so many of you leading up to the deadline, we still came up a bit short on the whole. We canā€™t let that happen again. We have no wiggle room to begin with, and now we have a hole to dig out of.

Readers also told us to just give it to you straight when we need to ask for your support, and seeing how matter-of-factly explaining our inner workings, our challenges and finances, can bring more of you in has been a real silver lining. So our online membership lead, Brian, lays it all out for you in his personal, insider account (that literally puts his skin in the game!) of how urgent things are right now.

The upshot: Being able to rally $253,000 in donations over these next few weeks is vitally important simply because it is the number that keeps us right on track, helping make sure we don't end up with a bigger gap than can be filled again, helping us avoid any significant (and knowable) cash-flow crunches for now. We used to be more nonchalant about coming up short this time of year, thinking we can make it by the time June rolls around. Not anymore.

Because the in-depth journalism on underreported beats and unique perspectives on the daily news you turn to Mother Jones for is only possible because readers fund us. Corporations and powerful people with deep pockets will never sustain the type of journalism we exist to do. The only investors who wonā€™t let independent, investigative journalism down are the people who actually care about its futureā€”you.

And we need readers to show up for us big timeā€”again.

Getting just 10 percent of the people who care enough about our work to be reading this blurb to part with a few bucks would be utterly transformative for us, and that's very much what we need to keep charging hard in this financially uncertain, high-stakes year.

If you can right now, please support the journalism you get from Mother Jones with a donation at whatever amount works for you. And please do it now, before you move on to whatever you're about to do next and think maybe you'll get to it later, because every gift matters and we really need to see a strong response if we're going to raise the $253,000 we need in less than three weeks.

payment methods

WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

The short of it: Last year, we had to cut $1 million from our budget so we could have any chance of breaking even by the time our fiscal year ended in June. And despite a huge rally from so many of you leading up to the deadline, we still came up a bit short on the whole. We canā€™t let that happen again. We have no wiggle room to begin with, and now we have a hole to dig out of.

Readers also told us to just give it to you straight when we need to ask for your support, and seeing how matter-of-factly explaining our inner workings, our challenges and finances, can bring more of you in has been a real silver lining. So our online membership lead, Brian, lays it all out for you in his personal, insider account (that literally puts his skin in the game!) of how urgent things are right now.

The upshot: Being able to rally $253,000 in donations over these next few weeks is vitally important simply because it is the number that keeps us right on track, helping make sure we don't end up with a bigger gap than can be filled again, helping us avoid any significant (and knowable) cash-flow crunches for now. We used to be more nonchalant about coming up short this time of year, thinking we can make it by the time June rolls around. Not anymore.

Because the in-depth journalism on underreported beats and unique perspectives on the daily news you turn to Mother Jones for is only possible because readers fund us. Corporations and powerful people with deep pockets will never sustain the type of journalism we exist to do. The only investors who wonā€™t let independent, investigative journalism down are the people who actually care about its futureā€”you.

And we need readers to show up for us big timeā€”again.

Getting just 10 percent of the people who care enough about our work to be reading this blurb to part with a few bucks would be utterly transformative for us, and that's very much what we need to keep charging hard in this financially uncertain, high-stakes year.

If you can right now, please support the journalism you get from Mother Jones with a donation at whatever amount works for you. And please do it now, before you move on to whatever you're about to do next and think maybe you'll get to it later, because every gift matters and we really need to see a strong response if we're going to raise the $253,000 we need in less than three weeks.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate